Thursday, November 18, 2010

Stretch run: NFL Week 11 Predictions

With the bye's all done for the year, we've finally reached the second half of the NFL season. With December right around the corner, that means the playoffs are soon to follow! Here are my Week 11 picks. Remember, picks this year are made against the spread and I'll be using the spread values that ESPN uses in their Pigskin Pick'em game. I finally made it over .500 for the season!

Record Last Week: 5-9, .357
Overall Record: 71-73, .493

Thursday Night Game:

Bears (6-3) @ Dolphins (5-4, -1.5)
It doesn't matter who the Dolphins start at quarterback, it could be Tyler Thigpen, Dan Marino or even Ronnie Brown, they will win this game by at least a field goal. My pick: Dolphins

Sunday Day Games:

Bills (1-8) @ Bengals (2-7, -5.5)
Anyone that has watched these two teams over the last few weeks knows that the Bills are the better team. The Bengals may still win but I expect a close game. My pick: Bills

Lions (2-7) @ Cowboys (2-7, -6.5)
The loser of this game should give up their Thanksgiving Day Game forever. As bad as the Cowboys are, I think they still find a way to beat the Lions by a touchdown. My pick: Cowboys

Ravens (6-3) @ Panthers (1-8, +10.5)
The Ravens are a lock to win this game but it's hard to see them going on the road and beating anyone by two scores even with extra time to prepare. The Panthers may stink but I think they keep this one close. My pick: Panthers

Browns (3-6) @ Jaguars (5-4, -1.5)
This is one of the tougher games of the week to pick. With the spread at 1.5, you are basically picking who you think will win the game between two evenly matched teams. With the way the Browns have been playing the last few weeks, it's tough to pick against them. My pick: Browns

Raiders (5-4) @ Steelers (6-3, -7.5)
I like the Steelers to win but the upstart Raiders to get the cover on the road. Winning, let alone winning by more than a touchdown, is suddenly difficult against the Raiders. My pick: Raiders

Redskins (4-5) @ Titans (5-4, -7.5)
For Donovan McNabb's sake, the Redskins better show up for this one. I do like the Titans to win the game but I see Washington bouncing back and keeping it close. My pick: Redskins

Cardinals (3-6) @ Chiefs (5-4, -7.5)
Another big spread but this time I think the home team covers. The Cardinals are just terrible, having lost 4 in a row to some pretty bad football teams. And to think, Arizona beat the Saints back in October. My pick: Chiefs

Packers (6-3) @ Vikings (3-6, +3.5)
These Brett Favre vs. his old team matchups have really lost their luster. With how the Vikings have played the last few weeks, I'm shocked that the line is only 3.5. What exactly does Brad Childress need to do to lose his job? My pick: Packers

Texans (4-5) @ Jets (7-2, -6.5)
The temptation is there to go with the Texans, who are beyond due for a win after losing three straight. The Jets are simply the better team, though, and they won't need overtime to prove it this week. My pick: Jets

Falcons (7-2) @ Rams (4-5, +3.5)
It's looking like we are headed for an all-Bird NFC Championship Game between the Falcons and Eagles. Look for Atlanta to win this one by a touchdown. My pick: Falcons

Bucs (6-3) @ Niners (3-6, -3.5)
Winners of 3 of their last 4 and in the worst division in football, we still can't write off the Niners. Despite their records being mirror images, I think the Niners are simply better than the Bucs right now. My pick: Niners

Seahawks (5-4) @ Saints (6-3, -11.5)
Seattle is the worst team with a winning record in the NFL. The Saints had an extra week to prepare. Enough said. My pick: Saints

Colts (6-3) @ Patriots (7-2, -3.5)
Ahh, the annual Colts/Patriots game. While the Patriots are riding high after their big win against the Steelers, I like the Colts to get up for this one and win outright. Remember when you couldn't count on Peyton Manning in a big game? My pick: Colts

Sunday Night Game:

Giants (6-3) @ Eagles (6-3, -3.5)
Before the season even began, I predicted that the Eagles and Giants would split their 2 games, with each team winning at home. Given how the Eagles played last week, I might be leaning towards the Birds winning both times these two teams play. Expect the speedy Giants defense to slow Michael Vick down a bit but the Eagles will still win by a touchdown. My pick: Eagles

Monday Night Game:

Broncos (3-6) @ Chargers (4-5, -9.5)
Because the Chiefs are actually a decent team, the path to the playoffs is going to be much harder for the Chargers this season. Given how strong the rest of the AFC is, we're almost to the point where the Chargers need to win out to make the postseason. My pick: Chargers

Those are my picks for Week 11 of the NFL Season. Check back every Thursday during the season for the latest predictions. Feel free to discuss, argue or make your own picks in the comment section!

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