Thursday, October 14, 2010

No one's perfect: NFL Week 6 Predictions

We are only 6 weeks into the NFL season and, with the Chiefs losing to the Colts, there are no undefeated teams left. The '72 Dolphins may be celebrating but it's really a clear indication that parity is alive and well. Any team can beat any other team, which means you don't have to explain why the Cardinals can beat the defending Super Bowl Champs while playing a quarterback that no one has ever heard of. It's parity, and it fuels the gambling industry and is the reason why fans from every team tune in because they know their team has a chance to win every week. The people that run the NFL aren't dummies.

Here are my picks for Week 6. Remember, picks this year are made against the spread and I'll be using the spread values that ESPN uses in their Pigskin Pick'em game. One of these days my overall record will get above .500.

Record Last Week: 5-9, .357
Overall Record: 36-40, .474

Bengals, Bills, Cardinals, Panthers

Sunday Day Games:

Seahawks (2-2) @ Bears (4-1, -6.5)

With Jay Cutler back and Todd Collins (thankfully) relegated to a third string role, the Bears offense should come back alive this week. Are the Seahawks really good enough to be trading away wide receivers? My pick: Bears

Ravens (4-1) @ Patriots (3-1, -2.5)
I like the Ravens to win this one outright against a Patriots team that, from the Randy Moss trade, has signified that this isn't going to be their year. If the Ravens want to take that next step to be a Super Bowl contender, this game is a must-win. My pick: Ravens

Lions (1-4) @ Giants (3-2, -10.5)

The Giants seem to be better than they showed against the Colts back in Week 2, but, 10.5 point favorites? Really? Shockingly, I believe in Shaun Hill and the Lions offense and their ability to keep this one close. My pick: Lions

Falcons (4-1) @ Eagles (3-2, -1.5)
I threw out this nugget on Twitter this week: the Eagles haven't lost a game this season when their starting quarterback has played the entire game. Given that King Dunlap will be the Eagles starting left tackle this week for an injured Jason Peters, the chances of Kevin Kolb surviving this game have greatly diminished. The only way the Eagles cover in this game is if the grumblings about Michael Vick playing against his former team are true. My pick: Falcons

Browns (1-4) @ Steelers (3-1, -13.5)
Are we really sure that Ben Roethlisberger is going to just pick up where he left off? The Browns might be the best team to make a comeback against but I still think the Steelers aren't just going to blow Cleveland away. My pick: Browns

Dolphins (2-2) @ Packers (3-2, -1.5)

Who I pick in this game entirely hinges on whether Aaron Rodgers plays. At this point in the week, since all indications are that Matt Flynn will be starting in Green Bay, I have to go with Miami. My pick: Dolphins

Chargers (2-3) @ Rams (2-3, +8.5)

I wish I could say I was surprised that the Chargers lost to the Raiders, but given how inconsistent San Diego is from week to week and season to season, nothing surprises me about this team. I see the roller coaster going back up this week for the Chargers. My pick: Chargers

Saints (3-2) @ Bucs (3-1, +5.5)

With the strong start the Bucs have put together, this is suddenly a very interesting divisional game. The Saints have to get the offense rolling again at some point, right? My pick: Saints

Chiefs (3-1) @ Texans (3-2, -4.5)
Now that they have taken their first loss of the season, the joyride is over for the Chiefs. Like the Chargers, you never know which Texans team will show up from week to week. As long as Andre Johnson turns the corner and starts getting his legs back, the Texans will remain in the playoff mix. My pick: Texans

Raiders (2-3) @ Niners (0-5, -6.5)
The Battle of the Bay sees the roles reversed as the Niners are the team desperate for a win while the Raiders are looking to become contenders in their division. I like the Niners to win but that line is ridiculously high. My pick: Raiders

Jets (4-1) @ Broncos (2-3, +3.5)
This should be an interesting game as the Jets defense tries to slow down the Denver passing attack. Expect the Sanchise to do some serious ball control and the defense to get all over Kyle Orton and keep the Broncos from getting into a rhythm. My pick: Jets

Cowboys (1-3) @ Vikings (1-3, -1.5)
Is it too soon to say that the loser is out of the NFC playoff picture? Given how weak the top of the NFC looks this year, probably not, but starting off 1-4 is going to make things very difficult for one of these teams. I don't trust either quarterback in this game but I do trust Adrian Peterson. My pick: Vikings

Sunday Night Game:

Colts (3-2) @ Redskins (3-2, +3.5)
Peyton Manning had a bad week last week. That won't happen again. The Redskins have playing over their heads and it's time for reality to set in. My pick: Colts

Monday Night Game:

Titans (3-2) @ Jaguars (3-2, +3.5)
It's pretty amazing that the entire AFC South division is 3-2, mostly because no one though the Jaguars would ever be above .500. This one should be low-scoring but I like Chris Johnson to break a few long runs. My pick: Titans

Those are my picks for Week 6 of the NFL Season. Check back every Thursday during the season for the latest predictions. Feel free to discuss, argue or make your own picks in the comment section!

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