Thursday, October 15, 2009

A league divided: NFL Week 6 Predictions

Have you ever seen a bigger collection of undefeated teams and winless teams at this point in the NFL season? While the league loves its parity and the idea of "any given Sunday", it's clear that there are two distinct halves in the league. While I expect a few of the undefeated teams to go down this week, you can almost guarantee that a team with no losses at this point in the season is going to the playoffs. As for the winless teams, well, sorry Titans fans, you better start scouting the college ranks for your top draft pick.

After my worst week of the season, here are my picks for Week 6 of the NFL season. Remember, all picks are made strictly based on who I think will win and do not take the spread into consideration.

Record Last Week: 8-6, .571
Overall Record: 57-19, .750

Byes: Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, Niners

Sunday Day Games:

Texans (2-3) @ Bengals (4-1)
The "Cardiac Bengals" are certainly the surprise team in the NFL, something everyone picks the Texans to be every year. While most focus on how good the Bengals offense has become with the resurgence of Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson and Chad Ochocinco, it's the defense that is winning games in Cincinnati. Case in point: the Ravens have looked like an offensive juggernaut this season and the Bengals held them to one offensive touchdown last week. My pick: Bengals

Lions (1-4) @ Packers (2-2) The Packers come off their bye week and the tough loss to the Vikings with an easy win against the banged-up Lions. If Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson were both playing and healthy, the Lions could have been thinking upset. Alas, while this game might be close as the Pack shakes off some of their bye-week rust, Detroit has no shot in Lambeau. My pick: Packers

Ravens (3-2) @ Vikings (5-0)
This one would be the game of the week if it wasn't for the game listed directly after this. The Ravens and Vikings are two of the more complete teams in the NFL as both teams have a solid defense paired with a top-notch running game. The Vikings have the edge, however, with Mr. Favre's arm. The Minnesota passing game has looked sharp the last few weeks, meaning the team doesn't have to rely on Adrian Peterson to be the entire offense. Of course, once teams start to worry about the pass, that's when Peterson busts one. My pick: Vikings

Giants (5-0) @ Saints (4-0)
This one is big. It's still early in the season, but this game could determine who the number one seed is in the NFC at the end of the year. Both teams have proven they can beat you a number of different ways, with the Giants showing they can actually pass the ball and the Saints showing they can actually run the ball. While Eli Manning's foot injury concerns me and they are on the road, I like the Giants in this one because of their defense. Drew Brees hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in his last two games and that clearly has to change because I don't see the Saints doing much on the ground in this game. I expect it to be close, but the best team in the NFL right now has to be given the edge. My pick: Giants

Panthers (1-3) @ Bucs (0-5)
When are the Bucs going to get that elusive first win? While Josh Johnson looked adequate against the Eagles, the rest of this Tampa Bay team just isn't going to stop anyone or make any big plays. The Panthers aren't that good, either, but Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will have big days eating up the Bucs D. My pick: Panthers

Chiefs (0-5) @ Redskins (2-3)
Which team is actually worse in this game? The Chiefs are awful and winless but they have the better quarterback and better receivers and are coming off a tough loss to the Cowboys. The Redskins, on the other hand, continue to just hand out victories to winless teams. Washington is a complete joke right now but you have to think they will take care of business at home in this one. If not, things are going to get even uglier in D.C. My pick: Redskins

Rams (0-5) @ Jaguars (2-3)
The winner in this one is anyone who avoids watching either of these messy teams. The Jaguars are my pick here only because there is the chance the Jags team that showed up against the Titans a few weeks ago makes another appearance. My pick: Jaguars

Browns (1-4) @ Steelers (3-2)
Congratulations, Browns, for winning a game when your quarterback completed 2 of 17 passes and you failed to score a touchdown. While that actually is quite an accomplishment, there is no way Cleveland can hang with a Steelers team that has to be fuming after blowing it against the Bengals and then playing down to the Lions. My pick: Steelers

Cardinals (2-2) @ Seahawks (2-3) After the Niners got smoked by the Falcons, it became clear that the NFC West is going to be up for grabs all year long, making this game actually pretty important. With Matt Hasselbeck back in the fold, the Seahawks look like they might be the best team in the division. The Cardinals defense has taken a step back after their solid run in the playoffs, so I like Seattle at home here. My pick: Seahawks

Eagles (3-1) @ Raiders (1-4) Seriously, when do the real games begin for the Eagles? Take the Eagles in every possible bet because they will beat the spread and hit the over. The real question in this game is how many points the Raiders are going to score, and anything over 10 will be a disappointment for the Eagles defense. The Birds better use this week to figure out how they are going to get their running game going because it was nonexistent last week against the Bucs. My pick: Eagles

Bills (1-4) @ Jets (3-2) If the Bills could only manage to score 3 points against the lousy Browns, how are they going to put anything on the board against a Jets defense that is pissed off after their poor showing against the Dolphins? T.O. should be imploding any moment now. On another note, I guess all it took for Braylon Edwards to not drop the ball was to play for a team that isn't terrible. My pick: Jets

Titans (0-5) @ Patriots (3-2) I feel for you, Titans fans, this is going to be a tough season. At least you will get to see some more of Vince Young at some point! Is this the week Tom Brady looks like his old self again? We might see his picture on the back of a milk carton if he doesn't snap out of it soon. My pick: Patriots

Sunday Night Game:

Bears (3-1) @ Falcons (3-1) It's hard not to like the Falcons after they dismantled the Niners on Sunday. When that offense is clicking, you have one of the most dangerous teams out there. The Bears are coming off their bye and have had two weeks to prepare but I still like Atlanta at home. My pick: Falcons

Monday Night Game:

Broncos (5-0) @ Chargers (2-2) The Chargers can't count on another late season collapse by the Broncos, so if they want to be a factor in the AFC West, they need to make their move much sooner this year. While I have been down on the Broncos, I have to recognize them as a legit contender now. That said, I'm going to pick against them once again. The Chargers are simply more talented and desperate for a win. My pick: Chargers

Those are my picks for Week 6 of the NFL Season. Check back every Thursday during the season for the latest predictions. Feel free to discuss, argue or make your own picks in the comment section!

1 comment:

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