Friday, October 2, 2009

Crystal clear: NFL Week 4 Predictions

We are only 3 weeks into the NFL season and there is already a clear distinction between the "have's" and the "have not's" in the NFL. In one group, you have all of the terrible teams, like the Rams, Chiefs, Bucs and Browns, who are going to be lucky to win more than 2 games this season. In the other group, you have the teams that look like they won't lose a game all season, like the Ravens, Colts and Giants. In the middle of those two groups is all of the parity, but it's amazing that after just this short amount of time we are already getting a crystal clear picture of how this NFL season is going to play out.

Here are my picks for Week 4 of the NFL season. Last week I did quite well, getting only 2 games wrong. Maybe I should be putting some money on this? Remember, all picks are made strictly based on who I think will win and do not take the spread into consideration.

Record Last Week: 14-2, .875
Overall Record: 37-11, .771

Byes: Falcons, Eagles, Cardinals, Panthers

Sunday Day Games:

Lions (1-2) @ Bears (2-1)
The Lions had their moment last week but the Bears are going to bring them back to reality. Detroit is getting better but they aren't good enough to go on the road and pull this one out. This game might be closer than you think, though, since the Bears have issues putting points on the board. My pick: Bears

Bengals (2-1) @ Browns (0-3)
The Bengals shocked everyone by knocking off the defending champs with a late touchdown last week and their good fortune continues with a game against the terrible Browns. While Carson Palmer and the Cincy offense seems to be getting back into shape, it's the defense that is leading the way for this team. 7 years into his tenure with the Bengals, "defensive guru" Marvin Lewis finally got the defense how he likes it. You also do realize that the Bengals would be 3-0 if it wasn't for the Broncos and their miracle play in Week 1? Cleveland is also just awful right now and has to be competing with the Rams and Bucs for worst team in the league. By the way, Browns fans, you can't have a quarterback controversy when neither QB is any good. My pick: Bengals

Seahawks (1-2) @ Colts (3-0)
The Colts just keeping doing enough to remind everyone that they are still an elite team. Just when you think Peyton Manning has lost it, he throws 4 touchdowns on Sunday Night. Just when you think the defense is terrible without Bob Sanders, they shut down the Cardinals. The Seahawks should get an automatic loss every time they trot out those disgusting puke green uniforms. They were truly an embarrassment and any Hawks fan that buys one should be shot. My pick: Colts

Giants (3-0) @ Chiefs (0-3) I have a hard time picking any of the winless teams to get a W this week. I know that eventually some of these teams have to pull out a win but I just see no way the Chiefs can do anything to stop the Giants rushing attack or move the ball at all on offense. If they pull off an upset, good for them. I'm not going to be the idiot that picks against the Giants, though. My pick: Giants

Bucs (0-3) @ Redskins (1-2)
This game was much harder to pick than it should have been. Both teams are awful and are coming off embarrassing losses. It's hard to say which loss was worse, the Bucs loss to the Giants where they didn't manage 100 yards of total offense or the Redskins loss to the hapless Lions? I think the 'Skins will be more fired up and playing with a sense of urgency after the debacle last week so that should carry them to a victory. The Bucs might be the worst team in football and I don't see them getting any better with Josh Johnson (isn't he a pitcher?) at QB. My pick: Redskins

Titans (0-3) @ Jaguars (1-2)
The Titans are one of the winless teams I see getting in the win column this week. Tennessee isn't really that bad, their record is just the result of a tough early schedule. Winning this one in Jacksonville won't be easy, either, but I see Chris Johnson breaking a few long runs and Kerry Collins doing just enough to pull this one out. My pick: Titans

Raiders (1-2) @ Texans (1-2)
I don't think I'll be picking the Raiders and the worst quarterback in football again this year. JaMarcus Russell is an abomination to the quarterback position and you can't win a football game by running the ball every down. I expect the Texans to win this one big with Steve Slaton having his first great game of the season. My pick: Texans

Ravens (3-0) @ Patriots (2-1) All of the sudden, the Ravens have one of the best offenses in the league. When you couple that with their always great defense, Baltimore could be the best team in the NFL. So, why do I still think the Patriots will beat them on Sunday? The Pats D, which shut down the Falcons last week, is actually better than we all thought and I can't see Tom Brady being bottled up for a third week in a row. I'm also very skeptical of Joe Flacco and I want to see him put up big numbers against a real defense, not the lousy Browns defense he faced last week. Take the over on this one because I expect it to be a shootout. My pick: Patriots

Jets (3-0) @ Saints (3-0)
If it wasn't for the storyline behind the Monday Night Game, this one would be the game of the week. Both teams are a bit of a surprise at 3-0 and this game will be a test to see how far each have come. I see more question marks for the Jets in this one, like whether the defense can slow down Drew Brees or if Mark Sanchez is really as good as he has looked, so I am going with the Saints. New Orleans proved a lot last week when they won without Brees throwing a single touchdown pass. If they can win games that way then it's going to be tough for any team to beat them. My pick: Saints

Bills (1-2) @ Dolphins (0-3)
The Dolphins have had a rough season so far and now that Chad Pennington is out for the year, things may only get worse. That said, I like them to get their first win this weekend against the Bills. I see the Dolphins running all over Buffalo and dominating the time of possession and pulling out a narrow victory. How long before T.O. implodes in Buffalo, by the way? 1 week or 2? My pick: Dolphins

Cowboys (2-1) @ Broncos (3-0)
Do I really have to pick a winner in this one? The Broncos are the worst 3-0 team in NFL history and the Cowboys have been so mediocre this season. While I should pick the Broncos at home to win this one, I just can't seem them going 4-0. My pick: Cowboys

Rams (0-3) @ Niners (2-1)
The Niners were just seconds away from being 3-0? The NINERS? My, they've come a long way. Even with Frank Gore out for the next few weeks, I don't see any way they lose to the crappy Rams at home. My pick: Niners

Sunday Night Game:

Chargers (2-1) @ Steelers (1-2)
The Steelers aren't playing like they won the Super Bowl last season but the loss last week to the Bengals should be the wake-up call that gets them going in this big game at home against the Chargers. With or without L.T., I think the Chargers are going to have a tough time scoring against a Steelers team on a mission. Pittsburgh knows that if they lose this one and are 1-3 they are going to have a huge uphill climb to even get back to the playoffs. My pick: Steelers

Monday Night Game:

Packers (2-1) @ Vikings (3-0)
The Vikings win last week was the exact reason they brought Brett Favre out of retirement. Do you think Tarvaris Jackson wins that game for Minnesota? No way. This game will be huge as Favre takes on his old team in a game that could end up being a shootout. It's going to be fun to see Aaron Rodgers try to one-up his old mentor and Favre try to prove that he's still the best gunslinger in town. When it comes down to it, though, Favre has something Rodgers doesn't: Adrian Peterson. My pick: Vikings

Those are my picks for Week Four of the NFL Season. Check back every Thursday during the season for the latest predictions. Feel free to discuss, argue or make your own picks in the comment section!


T-Bone said...

Um, on the basis of your comments, I think you meant to pick the Titans over the Jags...

allthingsphilly said...

Nice catch, I just updated it. Titans over Jags.