Monday, May 25, 2009

Fun with Phillies Projections, Hitters Edition

Now that we are more than a quarter of the way through the baseball season, the season is really starting to take shape. The quarter pole is the time to start looking at numbers to find the trends and the flukes. Let's take a look at some of the actual projected statistics for a selection of Phillies hitters and see if there is any chance they can meet these numbers:

Raul Ibanez
Current: 17 HR, 43 RBI
Projected: 64 HR, 162 RBI
Considering his career high in homers is 33, there is little chance that Ibanez will continue to be this hot, although he still seems a likely candidate to get a least 40 homers and 120 RBI. Ibanez has to be loving the transition from a pitchers park in Seattle to Citizens Bank.

Chase Utley
Current: 11 HR, 31 RBI
Projected: 43 HR, 121 RBI
While those numbers pale in comparison with Ibanez, Utley is crushing the ball this season. Those totals would dwarf his previous career high's by 10 homers and 16 RBI. Of course, with Utley, it's all about staying healthy. If he can remain in the lineup every day and close to 90%, he should at least get to 40 homers.

Jimmy Rollins
Current: 6 steals
Projected: 23 steals
A lot has been said about J-Roll's slump this season, and he can't steal bases if he doesn't get on them. Rollins hasn't stolen under 30 bases since 2003, and he has already started turning things around (4 steals in the last 10 games), so expect him to get close to 40 again.

Jayson Werth
Current: 8 HR, 8 steals
Projected: 31 HR, 31 steals
Werth was a 20/20 guy last year, can he make the leap to a 30/30 guy? I say doubtful, especially when you factor in that half of his steals came in one game. Werth has a shot at 25/25, which is still a darn good season.

Ryan Howard
Current: 51 strikeouts, 2 steals, 0 errors
Projected: 192 strikeouts, 8 steals, 0 errors
Howard had 4 career steals entering this season, he's absolutely tearing up the base paths this year. Those strikeouts are in line with his career averages, so expect the big man to continue K'ing at least once a game. The fielding seems like a legit turn-around, he had 19 errors last season and has made a concerted effort to become a much better fielder.

John Mayberry
Current: 1 HR, 3 RBI
Projected: 61 HR, 183 RBI
Small sample size be damned, those numbers seem about right!

Check back later for a look at projections for the Phillies pitchers.

No comments: