Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Fun with Phillies Projections, Pitchers Edition

Yesterday, I looked at some of the projections for the Phillies hitters and whether there was any shot they could continue at their current pace (Ibanez should easily hit 64, right?). Today, it's the pitchers turn. Let's take a look at some of the actual projected statistics for a selection of Phillies pitchers and see if there is any chance they can meet these numbers:

Brad Lidge
Current: 4 Blown Saves
Projected: 14 Blown Saves
14 Blown Saves would dwarf Lidge's previous career high of 8 BS in a season. Something is definitely wrong with Lidge, especially considering he didn't blow a single save last season and now he has completely fallen off the rails. I don't see any way he gets 14 blown saves this season because he will either turn it around or he will lose his job as a closer.

Brett Myers
Current: 15 HR allowed
Projected: 53 HR allowed
Myers' previous career high is 31 HR allowed. I have no idea what the all-time record is for homers allowed in a single season, but I have to think that 53 would be close to it. Myers could pitch well and still break this record, after all, who cares if he gives up a homer with no one on base?

Cole Hamels
Current: 2-2 record
Projected: 7-7 record
Obviously, King Cole will finish with at least 10 wins, but he will still rack up his fair share of no-decisions, especially if the bullpen continues to blow saves.

Ryan Madson
Current: 2-1 record, 1 save, 1.13 WHIP
Projected: 7-4 record, 4 saves, 1.13 WHIP
Perhaps he's the answer at closer while Brad Lidge is struggling? Madson has certainly been dominant.

Jame Moyer
Current: 3-5 record, 13 HR allowed, 7.42 ERA
Projected: 11-18 record, 46 HR allowed, 7.42 ERA
Moyer has had his worst season since 2004 with Seattle, when he put up numbers pretty similar to those projected numbers. That bodes well for a comeback for Moyer, since he has won 10 games every season since then, but it could also be a signal that he is in for a long year.

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