2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Round One

While the NBA Playoffs don't have the same excitement level as the NHL Playoffs, we are still in store for some intriguing series in the coming weeks. Especially interesting will be seeing just who gets out of the Eastern Conference, whether it be the upstart Bulls, the ancient Celtics, or the hated Heat. Here are my first round predictions with a quick thought on each series:

Western Conference
Spurs (1) vs. Grizzlies (8)
Spurs in 5
The Grizzlies did everything in their power to face the Spurs in the first round. They must be seeing something I don't because the Spurs not only play their usual great defense but they are also hitting three pointers at a ridiculous rate, making them a difficult team to knock off.

Lakers (2) vs. Hornets (7)
Lakers in 5
I'm being generous and giving the Hornets one game simply because of Chris Paul. This one could very easily be a sweep as the Lakers big men dominate inside.

Mavericks (3) vs. Blazers (6)
Blazers in 7
Wait, who is the favorite in this one? Maybe we are all too used to seeing the Mavs bow out early in the playoffs but this one has upset written all over it. No matter what, this one goes at least 6 games between two evenly matched opponents.

Thunder (4) vs. Nuggets (5)
Thunder in 6
This is potentially the best series of the first round with two highly entertaining teams. The Nuggets have been shockingly good since shipping Carmelo Anthony out of town, but I think they will be exposed in the playoffs when they have no go-to guy to feed the ball to down the stretch. The Thunder need to take the next step and get out of the first round.

Eastern Conference
Bulls (1) vs. Pacers (8)
Bulls in 5
The Bulls have made quite a jump, going from the 8th seed in the East last year to the 1st seed this year. Their reward is getting to spank the mediocre Pacers.

Heat (2) vs. Sixers (7)
Heat in 5
I went into greater depth on this series in my breakdown, but the Sixers just don't match up with the Heat. Best case scenario for the Sixers will be to stretch this out into a 7th game, but their lack of a clutch shooter at the end of the game will kill them in the end.

Celtics (3) vs. Knicks (6)
Celtics in 7
This one should be a fun, an old-fashioned Atlantic Division battle. The Celtics should get past the Knicks, but the longer the series goes, the more worn out they will be for their inevitable showdown with the Heat.

Orlando (4) vs. Hawks (5)
Magic in 6
With the way the Hawks stumbled into the playoffs, losing their final 6 games, there is almost no chance they pull off the upset over the Magic. It's funny how the Magic are suddenly an afterthought in the East this season, although they don't have much depth this time around.

Those are my picks for the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Let me know if you agree or disagree!

Sixers vs. Heat: First Round Breakdown

After one season away, the Sixers have climbed out of the abyss of the NBA and have gotten themselves back into the playoffs. Unfortunately, they are up against a Heat team that will likely be too much for them to handle. While I don't expect the Sixers to get blown out in any one game in the series, it will nevertheless likely be over quick. Here is my breakdown of the series.

Backcourt: While some argue that LeBron James is basically a point guard, the best backcourt player on either team, by a wide margin, is Dwayne Wade. Wade's numbers barely dipped this year even with the arrival of James, and he is still the number one option for the Heat when they really need a basket. Starting opposite Wade in the Heat backcourt is Mike Bibby, who is only useful to hit an occasional three and is a point guard in name only. The Sixers starting backcourt is solid, with Jrue Holiday continuing to come into his own and Jodie Meeks hitting nearly 40% of his three pointers. No matter how you arrange the pieces, though, the Heat have the clear advantage. EDGE: HEAT

Frontcourt: The advantage in the frontcourt is even bigger for the Heat, with James and Chris Bosh trumping anything the Sixers can throw at them. Despite all the negative press he receives, James is still a basketball freak of nature who can't be guarded by anyone. Andre Iguodala is a great defender, and he may even slow James down at times, but even Iggy at the top of his game has no shot at slowing down LeBron. As for Bosh, he is also takes his share of criticism for not being the superstar player he was labeled to be, but he is still putting up nearly 19 points and 8 boards a game, great numbers for the third best player on any team. The Heat start Zydrunas Ilgauskas at center, but he's just a big body and doesn't play a lot of minutes, much like Sixers starter Spencer Hawes. The Sixers frontcourt rounds out with Elton Brand, who has put up better numbers this year while dealing with nagging injuries. EDGE: HEAT

Bench: Finally, a spot where the Sixers have a clear advantage. With Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams coming off the bench, the Sixers have players that make a big impact when they enter the game. The Heat do not, with their best bench guys being one-dimensional, with shooters Mike Miller and James Jones and shot-blocker Joel Anthony being their biggest contributors. The Sixers bench will clearly do some damage when the Heat go to the bench, as Young has begun to develop into a star and even an injured Williams should be able to contribute. EDGE: SIXERS

Prediction: Against any other top Eastern Conference team, I would have believed that the Sixers could have done some damage and made their heavily favored opponent sweat out every win. While things won't be simple for the Heat, the Sixers just don't have the talent to matchup with James and Wade, and they don't have the offensive weapons to pull out close games in the end. For the Sixers, simply getting to the playoffs this season was probably enough, so there is no shame in bowing out quickly. They are still a team building for the future, so any experience they get in the playoffs now will only help them grow as a team down the round. HEAT IN FIVE

Miller blanks Flyers as Sabres take Game 1

The effort was certainly there for the Flyers; unfortunately, the result was not. Despite playing much better than they had in the final weeks of the regular season, the Flyers were unable to solve Sabres goaltender Ryan Miller, who pitched a shutout in a 1-0 win for Buffalo in Game 1.

Despite having a mediocre regular season by his standards, Miller flashed the talent that made him an Olympic hero, stopping all 35 Flyers shots. The Flyers worked hard to generate a number of solid chances from a number of different angles but Miller just wouldn't be beat. The lone goal in the game came in the third period after Danny Syvret, only playing because Chris Pronger is hurt, allowed Patrick Kaleta to get position near the net and bury a goal.

While the Flyers did go 0 for 5 on the powerplay, it's hard to find much fault in how they played in Game 1. They limited the Sabres chances, got solid goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky and controlled the play for most of the game but simply didn't get the result they wanted. Whether they get frustrated playing against a hot goalie or keep plugging away in Game 2 could be the difference as to whether they make this a series or not.

There is no need for the Flyers or their fans to panic after a Game 1 loss. If the Flyers come out in Game 2 with the same effort, pucks will start finding the back of the net. If they don't, Ryan Miller might just steal the series on his own and then there might not be anything the Flyers can do about it. I'm expecting the Flyers to make a big statement in Game 2, so I'm sticking with Flyers in 6.
(AP PHOTO)

Flyers vs. Sabres: First Round Breakdown

What a difference a year makes for the Flyers. Last season, expectations were low for a Flyers team that barely squeaked into the playoffs. This season, expectations are sky high for a Flyers team that was the best in the Eastern Conference until they coasted for the final month of the season. We all know what ended up happening last season as the Flyers went on an improbable run to the Stanley Cup Finals, so what lies in store for the Flyers this season?

The biggest question facing the Flyers will be whether they can flip the proverbial switch. Having shown little effort in losing 5 of their last 6 regular season games, it's fair to wonder whether the Flyers can ratchet their play back up to elite level simply because the playoffs have started. While the Sabres don't present a huge threat to the Flyers, they still have great goaltending and are a difficult team to score a bunch of goals against. The key for the Flyers in the series will be to get an early lead in each game and force the Sabres to push the issue offensively, opening them up for a number of odd-man rushes. Of course, if the Flyers play with the amount of effort they've shown in the last few weeks, getting that early lead will be difficult. Read on for a closer look at how these two teams matchup.

Offense: Nobody in the Eastern Conference can match the depth the Flyers have at forward. With 7 players with at least 19 goals and 6 with at least 49 points, the Flyers can beat you with any of their top three forward lines. While they don't have the best top-end talent in the league, the Flyers have more weapons than most teams can handle, even boasting a little-used player like Nikolay Zherdev who can strike at any time. This group also has a ton of playoff experience, as a handful were huge contributors on the Flyers run to the Cup Finals last year and they've even added Kris Versteeg, who was a solid role player for the Blackhawks team that downed the Flyers in the Finals.

As for the Sabres, they don't come anywhere close in matching the Flyers forward depth, though they do have 4 players that chipped in 20 or more goals. Their top two lines are pretty strong, with Thomas Vanek and Drew Stafford leading the scoring attack, but things drop down from there, as most of their depth players are muckers and grinders and they aren't big threats with the puck. Because the Sabres simply can't match their depth, I have to give the big edge at forwards to the Flyers.

Defense: While the Flyers will be much, much better with Chris Pronger in the lineup, they still have plenty of depth without him to survive at least one round. The Flyers biggest issue in their Cup run last year was their third defensive pairing that got exposed anytime they stepped out on the ice. With Pronger out, that third pairing is Sean O'Donnell and Nick Boynton or Oskars Bartulis, not a great pair but certainly a solid one. Buffalo once again can't match the Flyers depth, though they are solid in their own end. Tyler Myers is a beast, but he alone isn't enough to slow down the Flyers attack. Give the Flyers the edge on defense, too.

Goaltending: Finally, we get to the one aspect of the series where the Sabres have an advantage. We all know about Olympic hero Ryan Miller and his talents, though he hasn't put up great numbers this season. Still, Miller is capable of getting hot at any time and carrying the Sabres through a few rounds of the playoffs. The Flyers once again have more questions than answers in goal, as Sergei Bobrovsky will be given first crack as the starter. Luckily, the Flyers are strong enough defensively in front of Bobrovksy that he shouldn't have to stand on his head every night to get a win. The Flyers are also fortunate to have one, and possibly two, other goalies to turn to should Bob falter. Regardless, the Sabres have a comfortable edge in goaltending over the Flyers.

On paper, the Flyers are the better team in this series. Sure, the Sabres have a pretty big edge in net, but the Flyers depth at every position just can't be matched. We know that doesn't always translate to the ice, but if they play anything like they did for the first few months of the season, the Flyers should win the series in 6 games. Should Chris Pronger come back early in the series, I would even be tempted to bump that up to 5 games. While Buffalo is no pushover, the Flyers talent should be enough to carry them out of the first round.

Sixers vs. Heat: Series begins Saturday

They may not be there for long, but the Sixers indeed are back in the NBA Playoffs this year. While they would have liked to play the Celtics in the first round, the Sixers are stuck having to play a Heat team they simply have no shot at matching up with. Here is the schedule of games for the first round series:

Game 1: Saturday, April 16, Philadelphia at Miami, 3:30 pm
Game 2: Monday, April 18, Philadelphia at Miami, 7:00 pm
Game 3: Thursday, April 21, Miami at Philadelphia, TBD
Game 4: Sunday, April 24, Miami at Philadelphia, 1:00 pm
Game 5: Wednesday, April 27, Philadelphia at Miami, TBD
Game 6: Friday, April 29, Miami at Philadelphia, TBD
Game 7: Sunday, May 1, Philadelphia at Miami, TBD

I'll have more on the series later in the week, including a series breakdown. It's going to be quite a challenge for the Sixers to win more than 1 game in this series.

2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs: First Round Predictions

Forget March Madness; for my money, the Stanley Cup Playoffs are the most exciting tournament in sports. When it comes to non-stop excitement, nail-biting finishes and unpredictable upsets, it simply can't be beat. While my in-depth look at the Flyers series is coming tomorrow, here are my picks for the first round of the playoffs:

Eastern Conference:
(1) Washington vs. (8) N.Y. Rangers
Washington in 6
It must be pretty rough being a Rangers fan, having to wait until the last game of the season the last two years to find out if your team is making the playoffs. Despite being the 8th seed, the Rangers have by far the better goaltending, meaning they actually have a decent shot at knocking off the always susceptible Capitals. Unfortunately, I think this might finally be the year that the Capitals make that deep playoff run we've been talking about for years.

(2)Philadelphia vs. (7) Buffalo
Philadelphia in 6
It's been pretty shocking to see just how many "experts" are picking the Flyers to get knocked out in the first round. Yes, the Flyers have been playing poorly down the stretch. Yes, it is difficult to just flip the switch now that the playoffs have started. Yes, the Sabres finished the season on a nice little roll. Look past all of that and examine the talent on these two teams and, besides goaltending, the Flyers are the much, much better team. No one in the league can match the tremendous depth of the Flyers, as they legitimately have three scoring lines and arguably the best 6 defensemen in the league if/when Chris Pronger is healthy. The Sabres have a few nice players, like Thomas Vanek and Drew Stafford, but I don't see any way they can keep up with the Flyers offense. Sure, they have their problems in net, but if the Flyers simply get average goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky, they should win this series.

(3) Boston vs. (6) Montreal
Boston in 5
After taking the year off last year, one of the great Original 6 rivalries is back at it in yet another playoff series. On paper, this matchup doesn't seem that close, with the Bruins having the advantage in nearly every facet of play. With the Bruins also determined to erase the memory of their collapse against the Flyers, I wouldn't count on this being a very long series. Unless, of course, Carey Price steps in and does his best Jaroslav Halak impression and carries the team on another magical run.

(4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay in 7
Maybe this is just wishful thinking on the part of this Flyers fan, but the Penguins appear ripe for the picking by the Lightning. With Evgeni Malkin already out for the year and it not sounding like Sidney Crosby will be healthy enough to contribute, the Penguins offense looks incredibly weak. Contrast that with the Lightning, who have tremendous offensive players on the top two lines, and you wonder if the Penguins will be able to keep up. Yes, the Lightning have their holes, like their goaltending (Dwayne Roloson has to be what, like 50?), and their lack of depth, but I think they are going to give the banged up Pens more than they can handle. Of course, if Sidney Crosby is suddenly healthy, everything changes and the Lightning's lack of playoff experience could become an issue.

Western Conference:
(1) Vancouver vs. (8) Chicago
Vancouver in 7
Wow, this one should be fun. With how good the Canucks have been this season, they deserve a much easier first round opponent than the defending champs. Fortunately for Vancouver, this isn't the same Chicago team as last season since they had to jettison the majority of their depth. While the Canucks, like the Capitals, have had their fair share of playoff blunders, they are just too talented to get ousted in the first round. I expect a long, grueling series, but Vancouver's special teams should help them come out on top.

(2) San Jose vs. (7) Los Angeles
San Jose in 5
Even if the Kings had Justin Williams and Anze Kopitar, I'd have a hard time picking them to knock off the Sharks. San Jose actually has some depth this year, something that they haven't had in recent playoff flameouts. While I like the Kings defense, I don't think they have what it takes to shut down the big scorers on the Sharks top line.

(3) Detroit vs. (6) Phoenix
Detroit in 5
In a rematch from last season, I look for a similar result in fewer games. While the Red Wings are getting up there in years, they still have a ton of guys who know what it takes to win in the playoffs, plus they are the only team that can rival the Flyers in forward depth. The Coyotes do have the better goaltender in this series in Ilya Bryzgalov, but the Red Wings are better in every other facet of the game.

(4) Anaheim vs. (5) Nashville
Nashville in 7
I can really go either way in this one. The Ducks have a tremendous first line but not much in the way of depth. Nashville has their usual tremendous defense coupled with a top-notch goalie in Pekka Rinne but not much offense. I'll lean towards the Predators to finally make it out of the first round based solely on Rinne, though I don't feel strongly about it. The Ducks have plenty of experience and could easily make a playoff run this year.

Those are my picks for the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Check back tomorrow for a more complete breakdown of the Flyers/Sabres series.