Thursday, October 8, 2009

Almost too easy: NFL Week 5 Predictions

Week 5 could be the worst weekend of football games I've ever seen. Every game seems like a matchup between a terrible team and a contending team, making for a slew of no-brainer picks. Of course, whenever picks seem this easy, there will always be some inevitable upsets, but who in their right mind is going to pick the Raiders over the Giants? Or the Lions over the Steelers? Or the Bucs over the Eagles? You have to be crazy to think any of those teams have a shot.

Here are my picks for Week 5 of the NFL season. I'm coming off another solid week of picks and continue to have the best record I have ever had. Remember, all picks are made strictly based on who I think will win and do not take the spread into consideration.

Record Last Week: 12-2, .857
Overall Record: 49-13, .790

Byes: Bears, Packers, Saints, Chargers

Sunday Day Games:

Browns (0-4) @ Bills (1-3)
The Bills are the lesser of two evils in this one although it wouldn't surprise me if the Browns found a way to pull it out. They will have to win at some point, right? Switching to Derek Anderson at QB makes them more tempting, but I've got to go with the home team here. My pick: Bills

Steelers (2-2) @ Lions (1-3)
Poor Detroit. Just when things start looking better, Matthew Stafford gets hurt and everything is bleak again. If Daunte Culpepper has to start this game, expect a blowout. If Stafford someone suits up, expect a fairly close game. The Steelers will win this one no matter how poorly they play in the 4th quarter. My pick: Steelers

Cowboys (2-2) @ Chiefs (0-4)
The Cowboys aren't any good, but the Chiefs are much, much worse. Not even Tony Romo can screw this one up. My pick: Cowboys

Vikings (4-0) @ Rams (0-4) How good are the Vikings right now? Brett Favre is back to his old self, they have the best running back in football, they still stop the run better than most teams and they have a great pass rush starting with Jared Allen. This team is so good they are making Brad Childress actually look like a respectable coach. The Rams, on the other hand, continue to be awful. They are Steven Jackson and nothing else right now. Kyle Boller shouldn't even be in the NFL right now, let alone a starting quarterback. My pick: Vikings

Raiders (1-3) @ Giants (4-0)
Eli or no Eli, this one is a rout for the Giants. If you are betting on this game, no matter what the spread is, you better take the Giants at home. The Raiders have no quarterback and no chance. My pick: Giants

Bucs (0-4) @ Eagles (2-1) Simple math: Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook return + terrible Bucs team = big win for the Eagles. Of course, the Eagles could trot out Kevin Kolb and LeSean McCoy again and still come up big in this one, the Bucs are that bad. It will be more interesting to see how Jeremiah Trotter does in this game against NFL competition for the first time in years. He picked a good game for a return to help him build a little confidence. My pick: Eagles

Redskins (2-2) @ Panthers (0-3)
I've never been more confident that the winless team in this game will beat the team with two wins. That's because the Redskins are awful and the only reason they have 2 wins is because of their easy schedule. The Panthers get in the win column this week when they finally face a team with a worse quarterback than Jake Delhomme. My pick: Panthers

Bengals (3-1) @ Ravens (3-1)
The Bengals have a chance this week to prove they belong in the playoff picture in the AFC. Lose this game and I see the Bengals sliding their way back towards the pack of mediocrity. Win, and they have to be considered one of the better teams out there. Unfortunately for Cincy, however, there is no way they go to Baltimore and beat an angry Ravens team. The Ravens defense will be pretending every Bengal is Tom Brady and tear things up. My pick: Ravens

Falcons (2-1) @ Niners (3-1)
Before the season started, I would never have thought I would be picking the Niners to beat the Falcons. 4 weeks into the season, the Niners are one incomplete pass away from being undefeated. This will be a good, close game but I have to give the edge to the home team. My pick: Niners

Jaguars (2-2) @ Seahawks (1-3)
This was actually one of the tougher games to pick this week, but it all boils down to Seneca Wallace. If he plays, and I'm assuming at this point that he will, the Seahawks offense is disjointed and easy to shut down. Should Matt Hasselbeck play, Seattle easily wins this game at home against an inconsistent Jaguars team. As I said, though, Wallace will likely be the guy for another week. My pick: Jaguars

Texans (2-2) @ Cardinals (1-2)
I'm not sure what to make of this game, although I know it will be high-scoring. It's amazing how quickly the Cardinals have fallen from their "elite" status to just another bad team in a bad division. It just goes to show that they really weren't that good last year, they just went on a run. The Texans apparently have several players battling swine flu right now so that doesn't bode well for their chances this week; I suppose they could cough on the Cardinals to scare them. My pick: Cardinals

Patriots (3-1) @ Broncos (4-0)
This one should be the best game of the week since it's the Broncos putting their undefeated season on the line against the Patriots. Unfortunately, the Broncos are still the worst undefeated team I've ever seen and I will continue to say that even if they knock off the Patriots. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense can only be held down for so long, though, so I see them breaking out in a big way this week against a Broncos defense that has overachieved this season. My pick: Patriots

Sunday Night Game:

Colts (4-0) @ Titans (0-4)
How many prime time games does this make for the Colts already? I swear they are on every week. It's too bad, too, because this won't be a good game at all. The Titans aren't a terrible team, but they will continue to slide right out of any possible playoff picture. Who would have thought that 5 weeks into the season the Titans would already be eliminated? Perhaps it's time for Vince Young to get another shot. Nah, there's no point. He still sucks. My pick: Colts

Monday Night Game:

Jets (3-1) @ Dolphins (1-3)
Think the Jets defense will be fooled by the Wildcat? Ha, not likely. I wouldn't look for newly acquired Braylon Edwards to do much on the stat sheet although I do expect him to help the Jets stretch the field, opening things up even more for underneath passes and the run. My pick: Jets

Those are my picks for Week Five of the NFL Season. Check back every Thursday during the season for the latest predictions. Feel free to discuss, argue or make your own picks in the comment section!

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