Is J.A. Happ the next Kyle Kendrick?

I hope the Toronto Blue Jays front office doesn't read this....

J.A. Happ is having a phenomenal rookie year. His record is currently 7-1 and has a 2.97 ERA and has been a pleasant surprise as he holds up the back of the Phillies rotation. There has been much debate amongst Phillies fans, however, as to whether Happ should be part of a trade that would bring Roy Halladay to Philadelphia. Many Phillie fans don't want to give up the rookie pitcher while others would be willing to pack his bags for him. As for myself, I just want to caution Phillies fans to not get too far ahead of themselves before they christen Happ as the next Cy Young. Rookie pitchers have a way of taking the league by suprise in their first season and then fizzling out, just think back to the last time Phillies fans were this excited about a rookie pitcher.

Kyle Kendrick burst on the scene back in 2007, rolling up a record of 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA down the stretch as he helped the Phillies get to the playoffs. By all accounts, Kendrick was going to lock down the number 3 spot in the Phillies rotation for years to come. Well, I don't have to tell you how that turned out: the league caught up to Kendrick in 2008 and he has since washed out in the minors.

So, why the cautionary tale about J.A. Happ? Let's take a closer look at his numbers. In three starts this season against what I would call "good" teams, the Cardinals, Red Sox and Yankees, Happ has been pretty bad, going 17 and 2/3rds innings and giving up 12 earned runs on 21 hits and 6 walks. That's an ERA of 6.11, and a record of 0-1. It's safe to say that Happ hasn't performed well against good competition. Then, when you look at the rest of his starts and notice that he has faced the Marlins, Pirates, Reds, Braves, Blue Jays, Orioles, Mets, Padres and Nationals, and you can begin to see that Happ was able to pad his stats against weaker competition. Of those teams, I would classify 5 as terrible and 4 as mediocre. It's pretty easy to look good against that kind of competition.

I do like J.A. Happ and if the Phillies find a way to keep him and still get Roy Halladay, that would be great. I just find it crazy that anyone would think he was an untouchable pitcher who is going to be a star for the next decade. The best possible future for Happ is likely as a 3rd starter on a decent team and a 4th starter on a good team. I think, and hope, his career turns out better than Kyle Kendrick's, but Phillies fans have to know: a half season of good pitching does not make you a great pitcher. A decade of good pitching does, and that's the resume Roy Halladay brings to the table.

Please don't forward this post to anyone from Toronto.